North Dakota's Revenue Forecasting Process
The Legislative Assembly is responsible for approving the state budget, including the revenue forecast. The legislative revenue forecast prepared at the end of each legislative session includes a base revenue forecast and any legislative changes. Legislative changes may include tax incentives and exemptions, tax rate changes, or transfers from other state funds. The Appropriations Committees adopt an initial base revenue forecast in January at the beginning of the legislative session and adjust the base revenue forecast in March during the legislative session to reflect the most current forecast for economic conditions.
In preparation for each legislative session, the Legislative Management assigns an interim committee the responsibility to study and monitor state revenues and state revenue forecasts. The interim committee receives input from representatives of major industries in the state regarding current and anticipated economic activity. The interim committee also contracts for economic advisory services, currently IHS Markit of S&P Global, to provide economic and tax revenue projections for consideration by the interim committee as well as legislative leadership and the appropriations committees during the legislative session. The economic consultant provides revenue forecast data in September in the year preceding the legislative session and in January and March during the legislative session.
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) also prepares revenue forecasts for consideration by the Legislative Assembly in developing the state budget. The Office of Management and Budget contracts for economic advisory services, currently Moody's Analytics, to provide economic and tax revenue projections as a basis for developing the revenue forecasts. The Office of Management and Budget coordinates the development of the revenue forecasts with the Tax Department and involves a revenue estimating advisory committee. The advisory committee provides input to OMB as guidance for the development of the revenue forecasts. The committee includes private sector representatives, legislators, and other public officials. The committee meets prior to the issuance of the revenue forecasts to review the projections from Moody's Analytics and to provide recommendations based on current economic conditions. The OMB forecasts are generally released in February, August, and December in the year preceding a legislative session and in March during the legislative session.